1. Introduction
India’s
target of achieving a $5 trillion economy needs to be supported by a
transformed and reformed agriculture sector. It is, therefore, imperative that
the agriculture sector should support the objective by focusing on transformational
reforms, while targeting an annual agri-GVA growth of 5 percent.
The
criticality of agriculture for sustainable and inclusive growth of the Indian
economy can be gauged from the fact that, the sector provides employment to
about 42.4 per cent of the total workforce in India, but contributes only about
16.4 per cent (2020-21) to the country’s real Gross Value Added (GVA). About 86 per cent of
operational holdings in the country are in the small and marginal categories,
and the average size of an operational holding is only 1.08 hectare (ha). Due
to fragmentation and disorganisation, majority of the small and marginal farm
holders are unable to realise optimal value from their farming operations,
resulting in agrarian distress.
This
paper deliberates on a reforms agenda for transforming the sector for doubling
farmers’ income (DFI) and empowering small and marginal farm holders to move
from subsistence farming to farm enterprises integrated to agri-value chains,
while managing the VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity) world
to mitigate agrarian distress.
The
rest of the paper is organised as follows: Section 2 presents growth trends in
Indian agriculture during the period 2010-11 to 2019-20. Critical issues and challenges
in the agriculture sector in India are discussed in section 3. Section 4
presents the agenda for reforms to transform Indian agriculture. Section 5.
2. Indian Agriculture Sector: Growth
Trends
The
average annual growth of agri-GVA during the period 2012-13 to 2020-21 stood at 3.2 percent. The
period witnessed sharp dips in the growth in 2012-13 (1.5 percent), 2014-15
(-0.2 percent) and 2015-16 (0.6 percent) (Figure – 1), due to less than normal
monsoon rainfall in these years. On the other hand, good monsoon rains resulted
in high growth rates in agri-GVA during the years 2013-14 (5.6 percent),
2017-17 (6.3 percent), 5.0 percent (2017-18), 4.0 percent (2019-20) and 3.6
percent (2020-21) (Figure-1). However, in spite of India making great strides
in terms of food security and being the leading producer of rice, wheat, pulses, sugarcane and cotton, agriculture in
the country continues to be heavily dependent on monsoon rains.
The country
recorded its highest foodgrain production of 303.3 million tonnes (MT) in 2020-21. However, the CAGR of foodgrain production during the period 2011-12
to 2019-20 was only 2.0 percent, due to low CAGR of rice (1.7 percent), wheat
(1.9 percent), and nutri/ coarse cereals (1.9 percent). Pulses recorded the
highest CAGR of 4.3 percent, due to sharp increase in production in 2016-17, as
the farmers were encouraged to grow pulses, on account of significant increase
in minimum support prices (MSPs).
Among commercial
crops, groundnuts experienced the highest CAGR of 4.7 percent, during the
period under review. The CAGRs of other crops were very low, e.g., Soybean
(0.2), sugarcane (0.7 percent), tea (2.2 percent), coffee (0.4 percent), cotton (-0.4 percent), and jute
and m
3. Indian Agriculture: Critical Issues and Challenges
India
is self-sufficient in the production of foodgrains, horticulture crops and milk.
However, Indian agriculture has long been
suffering from structural problems, which need to be addressed urgently. Farmers
in India, truly live in a VUCA world of volatile prices, uncertain rainfall and
income, complex institutional mechanisms, restrictive laws, and policy
ambiguities. Some of the critical issues and challenges confronting Indian
agriculture are presented in the following sub-sections.
3.1 Small
Size of Holdings and Low Income
The
predominance of small and marginal holdings in India has resulted in inefficiency
in cultivation and low average income of farmers. The findings of NABARD All
India Rural Financial Inclusion Survey 2016-17 (NAFIS) (NABARD, 2018), reveal
that for agricultural source of income, with
the average monthly contribution of ₹3,508 (43.1 percent) to the total income of ₹8,136, while
cultivation contributed 7 percent (₹566). On the other hand, the share of
average monthly income from cultivation in respect of agricultural households
with landholdings of greater than 2 ha
was 51.6 percent (₹7,572). The findings of NAFIS indicate a positive
correlation between the average monthly income and size class of land
possessed. Further, states like Punjab (₹23,133), Haryana (₹18,496) and Kerala (₹16,927) have witnessed
much higher average income of agricultural households, compared to Uttar
Pradesh (₹6,668),
Andhra Pradesh (₹6,920),
and Jharkhand (₹6,991).
Therefore, reducing regional disparities in agricultural income need to be
prioritised.
Strategies
for promoting sustainable agricultural growth and enhancing farmers’ income,
should include a group approach through farmer producer organisations (FPOs),
which can improve market access to land, and help spread the risk of farming
among a larger number and increase production opportunities by experimenting
with higher value, and more risk prone crops with larger payoffs (Agarwal,
2016). Further, a group would be better placed to enter into non-exploitative
contract farming arrangements (ibid.).
3.2
Low Agricultural Productivity
India
is the largest producer of pulses and groundnut in the world, and the second largest producer of paddy, wheat
and sugarcane. However, stagnation in yield of major crops has been observed
during the past two decades. The average yield of rice increased from 1,901
kg/ha in 2000-01 to 2,705 kg/ha in 2019-20
(Table-1), at a CAGR of 1.8 percent . The second decade (2010-11 to
2019-20) witnessed a marginally higher CAGR of yield of rice at 1.7 percent
against 1.6 percent in the previous decade (2000-01 to 2009-10). Wheat experienced an increase in average
yield from 2,708 kg/ha in 2000-01 to 3,421 kg/ha in 2019-20, at a CAGR of 1.4
percent. The CAGR of productivity of wheat increased from 0.7 percent during
the decade 2000-01 to 2009-10 to 1.5 percent during the following decade
(2010-11 to 2019-20). Pulses experienced
a CAGR of yield of 1.5 percent in both the decades under review.
Among
commercial crops, a sharp increase in yield of cotton was witnessed during 2013-14
(532 bales/ ha compared to 190 bales/ ha in 2000-01), due to the introduction
of Bt cotton in 2009-10. The CAGR of yield of cotton during the past two
decades (2010-11 to 2019-20) stood at 11.3 percent (Table – 2). However, the CAGR declined sharply from 4.3 percent
during the decade 2000-01 to 2009-10 to -2.1 percent during 2010-11 to 2019-20,
reflecting a stagnation in yield of cotton, after benefitting from the
introduction of Bt cotton. Groundnut has
witnessed an increase in CAGR of yield from 3.3 per cent during the first
decade to 4 percent during the following decade (2010-11 to 2019-20), mainly
due to the introduction of improved varieties of seed. Yield of major
crops in India also compare poorly with that of other countries in the world.
Table – 1
Yield of Foodgrains in India
(Kg/ha)
|
Crops
|
2000-01
|
2010-11
|
2011-12
|
2012-13
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
2018-19
|
2019-20 (4th AE)
|
|
Rice
|
1901
|
2239
|
2393
|
2461
|
2424
|
2390
|
2400
|
2494
|
2576
|
2638
|
2705
|
|
Wheat
|
2708
|
2988
|
3177
|
3117
|
3075
|
2872
|
3034
|
3200
|
3368
|
3533
|
3421
|
|
Nutri/ Coarse cereals
|
1027
|
1531
|
1590
|
1617
|
1677
|
1729
|
1579
|
1750
|
1934
|
1944
|
1976
|
|
Pulses
|
544
|
691
|
699
|
789
|
764
|
744
|
656
|
786
|
853
|
757
|
817
|
|
Total Foodgrains
|
1626
|
1930
|
2078
|
2129
|
2101
|
2070
|
2056
|
2129
|
2235
|
2286
|
2325
|
Source: Handbook of
Statistics on the Indian Economy 2019-20, RBI
Table
– 2
Yield
of Commercial Crops in India
(Kg/ha)
|
Crops
|
2000-01
|
2010-11
|
2011-12
|
2012-13
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
2018-19
|
2019-20 (4th AE)
|
|
Groundnut
|
977
|
1411
|
1323
|
996
|
1750
|
1400
|
1465
|
1398
|
1893
|
1422
|
2065
|
|
Soybean
|
822
|
1327
|
1208
|
1354
|
983
|
950
|
738
|
1177
|
1058
|
1192
|
928.0
|
|
Total oilseeds
|
810
|
1193
|
1133
|
1169
|
1153
|
1037
|
968
|
1195
|
1284
|
1271
|
1236.0
|
|
Sugarcane
|
68577
|
70091
|
71668
|
68254
|
69839
|
69859
|
70720
|
69001
|
80198
|
80105
|
77893
|
|
Tea
|
1682
|
1726
|
1956
|
2027
|
2121
|
2113
|
2176
|
2165
|
2285
|
2109
|
2126
|
|
Coffee
|
959
|
838
|
852
|
846
|
799
|
847
|
876
|
761
|
765
|
767
|
718
|
|
Cotton
|
190
|
499
|
491
|
486
|
532
|
461
|
415
|
512
|
443
|
378
|
451
|
|
Jute & Mesta
|
1867
|
2192
|
2283
|
2281
|
2449
|
2550
|
2421
|
2585
|
2435
|
2508
|
2641
|
Source:
Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy 2019-20, RBI
3.3 Stagnant Capital Formation in
Agriculture
Capital formation in agriculture is of
critical importance for the sustainability of agricultural growth. The percentage share of Gross Capital
Formation (GCF) in agriculture and allied sector in the Gross Value Added (GVA)
of the sector, declined steadily from 18.2 percent in 2011-12 to 14.7 percent
in 2015-16, before rising slowly to 16.4 percent in 2018-19 (Figure-2), which is
too meagre to address the issue of sustainability of Indian agriculture.
Therefore, capital formation through rural infrastructure development assumes
significance. Public sector investment in rural infrastructure would result in
high growth of the agricultural sector, and could also crowd-in private sector
investment.
Source:
Based on data accessed from Economic Survey 2020-21, Ministry of Finance, GoI
and National Income Statistics
2020, MoSPI, GoI
3.4 Climate Change and Agriculture
Climate
change poses a major and growing threat to food security (FAO, 2016). It would
be a daunting challenge to produce enough food for the increasing population in
the face of decreasing resources and changing climate. The estimated loss in
yields in respect of major crops like rice (-30 per cent), wheat (-23 per cent)
and maize (-31 per cent) during 2050-69 in India, due to climate change is
quite alarming. Further, the net emissions from agriculture in carbon dioxide
equivalent in 2014 in the world was as much as 5,241,761 thousand tonnes. China
(707,640 thousand tonnes), India (626,864 thousand tonnes) and Brazil (441,905
thousand tonnes) account for the major quantum of net emissions from
agriculture (FAO, 2016).
3.5 Market Constraints
A critical problem faced by India’s
agriculture sector is the fragmented and distortions-ridden state of
agricultural markets. One of the major reasons for low income of farmers is
lack of competitive market structure, which is bereft of transparent price
discovery system. Small and marginal farm holders lack the bargaining power to
sell their produce at remunerative prices due to the exploitation by traders (arhatiyas)
in the Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) markets. Lack of
aggregation of produce makes it uneconomical for farmers to transport their
produce to the APMC markets for their sale.
GoI announces Minimum Support Price (MSP)
in respect of 23 commodities. However, only few states like Punjab, Haryana and
M.P., have strong procurement systems
and FCI procures major quantities of wheat from these states (84.8 percent
during Rabi Marketing Year 2020-21).
4. Transforming Indian Agriculture: Agenda for Reforms
An
agenda for reforms to transform Indian agriculture is presented in the
following sub-sections.
4.1 Doubling Farmers’ Income
GoI
has envisioned the achievement of doubling farmers’ income (DFI) by the year
2024-25. The following seven-point strategy for DFI is mostly under
implementation: (i) irrigation with focus on water-use efficiency, viz. “per
drop more crop” (PDMC) through Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY);
(ii) quality seed and soil health, (iii) investments in warehouses and cold
chains; (iv) value addition through food processing; (v) electronic National Agriculture
Market (e-NAM); (vi) increase in the coverage and effective implementation of
Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY); and (vii) promotion of ancillary
activities like dairy, poultry, bee-keeping and fisheries. The strategy for
DFI, involving increase in private investment by 6.62 per cent per annum from
the base year 2015-16 at the national level, should also include among others:
(a) promoting higher agricultural growth in less developed regions, including
rainfed areas, with a focus on marginal and small holders; (b) strengthening
livestock related activities and crop diversification to high value produce
like horticulture, in line with market signals; (c) shifting priority focus to
post-production management and the agricultural marketing system; (d) sizeable
increase in institutional credit to farmers; (e) allocation of more resources
by state governments towards minor irrigation; and (f) incentivising private
corporate sector to participate in investments in agriculture (GoI, 2017). In
order to achieve DFI, GoI can use income policy to protect the poor, free up
prices for farmers, and allow private trade to stock and operate freely and
have unhindered exports (Gulati and Hussain, 2017). What is also needed is the
continuance of PM-KISAN, with possibly a higher allocation, along with top-up
by states, on the lines of YSR-Rythu Bharosa-PM-KISAN of Andhra Pradesh.
4.2 Irrigation
and Water-use Efficiency
India
is a water-stressed country, and the declining per capita availability of water
in the country poses a major challenge to the growth of agriculture. Out of the
country’s 4 percent share of global freshwater availability, the agriculture
sector consumes about 78 percent share of water (Sharma, et al., 2018). However,
while only 48.7 per cent of the net sown area in the country is irrigated, the
depletion of groundwater, which accounts for about 60 per cent of the country’s
irrigated area, has adverse impact on irrigation cost and crop productivity. Therefore, implementation of PMKSY and PDMC should create higher
irrigation potential and ensure water-use efficiency.
The
overall irrigation efficiency in India is observed to be low compared to global
standards due to the use of conventional flood irrigation technique, practised
in large parts of the country. In order to improve water-use efficiency of crop
cultivation, the use of precision irrigation technologies needs to gain
momentum. Water stress can be reduced and availability of water can be
increased through cost-based water pricing. There is also a need to make a
paradigm shift from use of input intensive technology to significantly
enhancing input productivity, e.g., the use of water-saving technology like
micro-irrigation, System of Rice Intensification (SRI), direct seeded rice,
zero tillage, etc.
4.3 Tech-driven agriculture
According
to NITI Aayog (2018), Artificial Intelligence (AI) will have significant global
impact on agricultural productivity at all levels of the value chain. AI and
embedded systems in agriculture sector via smart irrigation system can result
in the efficient use of water resources. Drip irrigation system can be fully
automated using IoT, resulting in significantly higher crop yield due to much
better water-use efficiency than traditional drip irrigation system. NITI Aayog
and IBM have partnered to develop a crop yield prediction model using AI to
provide real time advisory to farmers. Also, Microsoft in collaboration with
ICRISAT, has developed an AI Sowing App. The app sends sowing advisories to
participating farmers on the optimal date to sow.
According
to NASSCOM and Zinnov (2020), agri-tech start-ups are using technology drivers
such as AI, machine learning (ML), robotics and satellite communication to
serve farmers’ needs. The interface of agriculture with technology steered
entrepreneurship is increasing competitiveness, leveraging digitisation and relying
on innovation to solve varied challenges in the sector (Kant, 2021). There are
735 agri-tech start-ups in India which are enabling Indian agriculture to
become future ready, and there is a need to scale up the agri-tech start-up
ecosystem for the benefit of majority of farmers.
4.4 Agriculture Marketing Reforms
GoI’s
vision of DFI signified a paradigm shift in agriculture policy from ensuring
food security to income security of farmers, by maximising their gains through
post-production activities. The enactment of Farmers’ Produce Trade and
Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, 2020 (FPTC Act, 2020), Farmers
(Empowerment and Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services
Act, 2020 (FAPAFS Act, 2020) and Essential Commodities (Amendment) Act, 2020
(ECA, 2020), signified the ushering in of the long-awaited comprehensive agri-marketing reforms. However, the Acts
have since been repealed, in response to the year-long agitation by a section
of farmers against the Acts. It is, therefore, imperative for the central and state
governments, along with agriculture scientists, economists, farmers, agri-tech
companies, corporate sector, and all stakeholders to start a consultative
process to facilitate state governments to enact agriculture marketing reform
Acts, and for GoI to enact a law facilitating easy inter-state movement of
agri-commodities/ produce. Further, in order to develop an efficient
nation-wide agri-marketing system,
e-NAMs need to be scaled up and made more efficient, and all private markets
and accredited warehouses should be linked to e-NAMs.
4.5
Rural Infrastructure and Efficient Agri-Value Chains
Investment
in rural infrastructure is a pre-condition to enable the acceleration of
agricultural growth, creation of new economic opportunities, and generation of
employment. It is, therefore, worth appreciating that the Union Budget 2021-22
has enhanced the allocation under Rural Infrastructure Development Fund (RIDF),
administered by NABARD, by a whopping 33.3 percent to `40,000 crore over the
allocation in the previous year’s Budget.
Further,
setting up of mega food parks, integrated cold chains, food processing units,
agro-processing clusters, and implementation of Operations Greens Scheme, under
GoI’s comprehensive package of PM Kisan SAMPADA Yojana (PMKSY) , will not only
provide a big boost to the growth of food processing sector in the country but
also ensure higher income to farmers, while creating huge employment
opportunities especially in the rural areas, reducing wastage of agricultural
produce, and enhancing the export of processed foods. The Production Linked
Incentive (PLI) Scheme for the food processing sector is a step in the right
direction.
India
is the largest producer of milk in the world, having increased from 146.3
million tonnes in 2014-15 to 198.4 million tonnes in 2019-20 (GoI, 2021). The
country is also the second largest fish producing country in the world, and
fisheries is the fastest-growing (12 percent real GVA growth in 2018-19)
sub-sector of agriculture and allied sector. A focus on development of efficient dairy and
fisheries value chains could significantly increase employment and improve the
income of smallholder farmers.
4.6 Agriculture
Export Reforms
India
ranks among the top ten exporters of agricultural products in the world. According to WTO’s World Trade Statistical
Review 2021, the country’s share in global agricultural exports increased
from 1.1 percent in the year 2000 to 2.2 percent in 2020, valued at $39
billion, In order to catch-up with Brazil ($89 billion) and China ($82 billion),
India needs to bring about structural reforms in the agriculture sector,
including a stable trade policy regime (Roy, 2021).
India’s
agricultural exports experienced huge fluctuations during the period 2011-12 to
2020-21 (Figure – 3). The ten-year CAGR was -0.6 percent. During the first
five-year period 2011-12 to 2015-16, the CAGR was -3.0 percent. The second
five-year period (2016-17 to 2020-21) witnessed a positive CAGR to 2.4 percent.
CAGR: 2011-12 to 2020-21 = -0.6%; 2011-12 to 2015-16
= -3.0%; 2016-17 to 2020-21 = 2.4%
Source: Author’s calculations
based on data accessed from Economic Survey, Government of India (various
issues) and World Trade Statistical Review 2021, WTO
The
Agriculture Export Policy (AEP), 2018 of GoI, aims at achieving an export target
of $60 billion by 2022 and $100 billion within a few years, thereafter. This is
indeed a humongous task, and achieving the target would involve a paradigm
shift from a “business-as-usual” approach to a well-calibrated, comprehensive,
strategic and result-oriented agri-export
policy and action plan.
The
agri-export strategy should include integration of value-added agri-produce
with global value chains (GVC), by adopting the best agricultural practices
involving productivity gains and cost competitiveness. Also, in order to boost
exports of dairy products and make the dairy sector globally competitive, GoI
needs to consider the development of Dairy Export Zones (DEZs) in collaboration
with state governments (Roy, 2021). The AEP has recommended the establishment
of Agriculture Export Zones (AEZs), to facilitate value addition of
agri-commodities for increasing exports in a WTO compatible manner. In order to
ensure higher income to farmers, FPOs need to be linked to AEZs to supply
SPS-compliant agri-products.
4.7 Climate
Mitigation and Adaptation for Sustainable Agriculture
Development
Climate
Smart Agriculture (CSA) works to reconcile the objectives of sustainably
increasing agricultural productivity and incomes, building resilience and
adapting agriculture to climate change, and reducing and removing greenhouse
gas emissions from agriculture (FAO, 2019). Drip irrigation is a CSA technology,
which saves water and energy, while reducing GHG emissions. Expansion in the
use of solar-powered AI-based drip irrigation systems across all states in
India and for major crops, viz. rice, wheat, horticultural crops and sugarcane
can be an integral part of a Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus approach to support
water-use efficiency, use of renewable energy and mitigation of GHG emissions,
food security and sustainable agriculture.
Methane
(CH4) emissions contribute to a third of the current anthropogenic
GHG warming. Paddy cultivation contributes about 15-20 percent of the total
anthropogenic CH4 emissions. Methods like System of Rice
Intensification (SRI), drip irrigation, soil amendments, organic matter
management, different tillage, rotation, and cultivar selection, can facilitate
mitigation of methane emission (Roy, 2020).
4.8
Research and Development and Extension Services
The
needs of farmers in terms of information and technology support have become
more complex, due to the rapid pace of developments in the agriculture sector. India
needs a vibrant, responsive, market oriented and globally competitive
agricultural research ecosystem (NITI Aayog, 2017). Budgetary resources for
R&D on seeds (HYV and GM), and agri-technology, need to be enhanced significantly. The private sector, too, needs to enhance investment
in R&D. Further, there is a need to revitalise agriculture extension
services by making them more relevant and useful in order to improve
agricultural productivity. Also, efforts need to be made to enhance
post-harvest processing and value-added activities at the farm. FPOs/ FPCs could
be developed into alternative agencies for providing extension services to farmers.
4.9 Agriculture
Credit
Adequate
and timely availability of bank credit, at affordable rates of interest is
essential to improve agricultural productivity and sustainability. The focus needs be on ensuring increased credit
flows to high-growth and high-value activities, viz. animal
husbandry, dairy, and fisheries, along with horticulture, farm
mechanisation, warehouses and cold chains, to farmers, FPOs and agripreneurs.
It is imperative to increase the share of agriculture term loans in total
agriculture credit disbursed, from the current 40 percent to 60 percent, to
accelerate capital formation in
agriculture.
4.10
Risk Management
The
PMFBY, which aims to provide insurance coverage and financial support to the
farmers in the event of failure of any of the notified crops as a result of
natural calamities, pests and diseases, needs to be redesigned for timely and
adequate support to farmers. Futures
markets provide a market mechanism to balance the imbalance of the supply-demand
pattern of agricultural commodities. Also, the combination of futures and
options can give market participants the benefit of price discovery of futures
and simpler risk management of options. FPOs need to be encouraged to
participate in futures and options trading of NCDEX.
5. Conclusion
An
enabling environment for agricultural sustainability needs to be created
through massive investment in irrigation, with a focus on water-use efficiency,
enhancement in total factor productivity of crops, tech-driven
agriculture, climate-smart agriculture, creation
of rural infrastructure, development of efficient agri-value chains, agri-marketing
reforms, promotion of agri-exports, enhancing spending on R&D, credit innovations,
and agri-risk management. Also, tenancy reforms need to be carried out by
states. Effective implementation of these transformative
reforms, could lead to sustainability of Indian agriculture, and facilitate the
achievement of doubling farmers’ income by 2024-25, while mitigating agrarian
distress. Reforms would create an ecosystem which promises to enable
farmers to come out of the VUCA world.
(This blog is drawn from paper published in Indian Economic Journal Special Issue of the 103rd Annual Conference of the Indian Economic Association)
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