India's Journey Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution: Growth Prospects and Export Competitiveness

In the midst of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (IR-4), characterized by the fusion of digital, physical, and biological technologies, India finds itself at a pivotal juncture in its economic trajectory. As the global landscape continues to evolve, it is essential to assess India's growth prospects and export competitiveness in this dynamic context.

India's Economic Landscape

India has emerged as one of the world's fastest-growing major economies, fuelled by a burgeoning young population, vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem, and ambitious policy reforms. However, to sustain this momentum and harness the opportunities presented by the Fourth Industrial Revolution, concerted efforts are required across various fronts.

The country has experienced a significant economic resurgence post the Covid-19 pandemic. In FY22, the economy witnessed a remarkable surge of 9.7%, followed by growth rates of 7% in FY23 and 7.6% in FY24 (Figure 1). The CAGR of real GDP over the last five years stands at an impressive 5.2%. Additionally, the average annual growth rate over the past three years remains robust at 8.1 percent. This recovery is attributed to substantial government investment in infrastructure, strong export performance, and relatively solid private consumption, especially in urban areas. Looking ahead to FY25, achieving a growth rate surpassing 6.5-% appears feasible, contingent upon significant boosts in private investments, public expenditures, export activity, and agricultural output, while maintaining focus on government capital spending.

Source: NSO, MoSPI, GoI

Growth Prospects

With a nominal GDP of $3.54 trillion in the fiscal year 2023-24, India currently holds the position as the world’s 5th largest economy. Projections suggest that by the fiscal year 2027-28, India is anticipated to surpass Germany and Japan, elevating to the position of the 3rd largest economy globally. According to the World Bank's criteria, India's per capita nominal GDP must ascend from $2,396 in the fiscal year 2022-23 to $21,668 (assuming a 2% global inflation rate) at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 9.2% over the 25-year period concluding in 2047. Concurrently, nominal GDP must reach $35 trillion (at a CAGR of 10.1%) to attain the status of a high-income economy by 2047 (Figure 2). In real terms, GDP must sustain growth within the range of 7.5-8% over the next quarter of a century to ensure sustainability.

                                    Source: Data for 2024-25 - 2047-48 estimated by the author

India's reform priorities should include investment-friendly policies, including continued investment in infrastructure; easing FDI regulation; export-led manufacturing and services growth; significant increase in R&D investments for raising total factor productivity (TFP) in the major growth sectors to promote export competitiveness. 

In order to fully harness the opportunities presented by IR-4, which was advocated  by Klaus Schwab (2017), concerted efforts are necessary to leverage India's prowess in digital technologies and foster the development of smart manufacturing. The IR-4 offers India a significant chance for inclusive growth and socioeconomic advancement. With breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, and data analytics, traditional industries are experiencing profound transformations, ushering in an era of innovation-driven progress. India's strong foundation in information technology and software services positions it well to seize upon these technological disruptions and capitalize on the ensuing opportunities.

Moreover, government initiatives such as Digital India, Make in India, and Startup India are cultivating an environment conducive to innovation, entrepreneurship, and digital transformation. By leveraging these initiatives effectively, India can not only enhance productivity and competitiveness but also stimulate job creation across various sectors. These efforts will not only propel India towards the forefront of the global digital economy but also foster inclusive growth, ensuring that the benefits of technological advancements are shared widely across society.

Harnessing Opportunities in the Fourth Industrial Revolution for Transforming the Manufacturing Sector

Over the past five years, the contribution of India's manufacturing sector to the Gross Value Added (GVA) has remained static, hovering around 15%. Despite this, the sector has experienced a modest average real growth rate of 3.3% during this period. To fully leverage the opportunities presented by the IR-4, concerted efforts are necessary to capitalize on India's prowess in digital technologies and foster the development of smart manufacturing initiatives. India has demonstrated significant progress in the digital realm, particularly through large-scale projects facilitated by robust public digital infrastructure, notably in the realm of payment infrastructure.

The implementation of the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme has played a pivotal role in reshaping India's export portfolio, transitioning from conventional commodities to higher value-added products such as electronics, telecommunication goods, and processed food items. By seizing the opportunities presented by IR-4, there is potential for the manufacturing sector to emerge as a principal driver of economic growth in India.

This blog forecasts a substantial growth trajectory for India's manufacturing sector, projecting an increase from $452.3 billion in 2023-24 to $1.03 trillion by 2047-48, with a CAGR of 13.5% (Figure 3). This projection assumes the transformative impact of IR-4, with the share of the manufacturing sector in India's GVA expected to rise significantly from 14.1% in 2023-24 to 30% by 2047-48 (Figure 4).

Export Competitiveness

Export competitiveness is a vital component of India's economic growth trajectory and its integration into the global market. In the context of the IR-4, characterized by rapid technological advancements, India's ability to adapt to evolving global trends and leverage cutting-edge technologies is critical for enhancing its export competitiveness.

In 2022, India's merchandise exports reached a value of $453 billion, ranking 18th globally and accounting for a 1.8% share, as reported by the WTO in 2023. This marked a significant 15% annual growth. Additionally, India's exports of commercial services amounted to $309 billion, securing the 7th position worldwide and capturing a 4.4% share in 2022. This segment experienced a notable growth of 29%. 

During the FY23, India's merchandise exports surged past $451 billion, while the combined value of overall exports, encompassing both goods and services, reached an unprecedented $770 billion. It is noteworthy that this accomplishment occurred against a backdrop of already elevated figures, as India's total exports for FY22 had also set a record at $676 billion. India is projected to achieve $2 trillion exports by 2030 (Figure 5). To achieve this, total exports need to grow at an average annual  rate of 13.6%, and a CAGR of 13.8%. Merchandise and services exports need to grow at CAGRs of 11.1% and 16.9%, respectively, to achieve exports of $1 trillion, each.

Panagariya (2019) highlights compelling cross-country evidence demonstrating a robust correlation between trade openness and economic growth. India boasts inherent strengths in key sectors like IT services, pharmaceuticals, automotive, and textiles, which serve as the foundation of its export prowess. However, to sustain and expand this competitive advantage, India must prioritize efforts to boost productivity, ensure high-quality standards, and foster innovation across these sectors. This entails embracing advanced manufacturing technologies, making significant investments in research and development, and equipping the workforce with the necessary skills to operate in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

Furthermore, India can capitalize on emerging opportunities in sectors such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and digital services to diversify its export portfolio and tap into new markets. By forging strategic partnerships with global players, adopting international best practices, and streamlining trade facilitation processes, India can solidify its position as a preferred destination for international trade and investment.

In essence, enhancing export competitiveness requires a multifaceted approach that encompasses technological innovation, investment in human capital, diversification of export sectors, and collaboration with global partners. By proactively addressing these areas, India can not only sustain its current export momentum but also position itself for long-term success in the global marketplace.

Challenges and the Way Forward

Despite the immense potential, India faces several challenges on its path to realizing its growth prospects and export competitiveness in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. These include infrastructural bottlenecks, regulatory complexities, skill mismatches, and global trade uncertainties. Addressing these challenges requires concerted efforts from policymakers, businesses, academia, and civil society.

Investments in infrastructure development, technology adoption, education, and skill development are imperative to address the structural impediments hindering India's growth trajectory. Furthermore, fostering an enabling ecosystem for innovation, entrepreneurship, and sustainable development is essential to unlock India's full potential in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

India stands at a critical juncture in its economic evolution, poised to capitalize on the opportunities presented by the Fourth Industrial Revolution. By embracing technological disruptions, fostering innovation-led growth, and enhancing export competitiveness, India can chart a path towards sustained economic prosperity and global leadership in the 21st century.

Transforming Indian Agriculture: FPOs as Change Agents

About 86 per cent of operational farm holdings in India are in the small and marginal categories, with farmers practicing subsistence farming, and living in a VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) world. Due to fragmentation and disorganisation, farmers face constraints in procuring inputs like seeds, fertilisers and pesticides at reasonable prices, lack bargaining power in the market for   realising better value for their produce, and have inadequate access to technology, extension services, market, credit and crop insurance. As a result, majority of small and marginal farm holders are unable to realise optimal value from their farming operations. In order to address these and other problems encountered by these categories of farmers, farmer producer organisations (FPOs)/ farmer producer companies (FPCs)/ collectives have come into existence in the country. the Y.K. Alagh Committee (2000) constituted by Government of India (GoI), recommended the promotion of producer companies that allow the cooperative spirit to co-exist with the operational flexibility of corporates. Over the years, NABARD, SFAC and state agencies have helped form FPOs/ FPCs.

FPOs need to develop as change agents for evolving subsistence farming to farm enterprises, and developing efficient agri-value chains, for transforming the agriculture sector.  In 2020, GoI launched a Central Sector Scheme (CCS) for the promotion of 10,000 FPOs within a period of five years, with a total budgetary provision of `6,865 crore. The government will provide financial support of up to `18 lakh per FPO in their first three years. It is expected that from the fourth year onwards, the FPOs will be able to manage without this assistance. Although the government has increased hand-holding and financial support for new FPOs, this may be inadequate, as their working capital needs have not been taken care of. Banks are also reluctant to finance FPOs, as they are unsure of their creditworthiness.

The issues and challenges faced by FPOs need to be addressed by the government and all stakeholders in the FPO space, to make them sustainable institutions, enabling a significant improvement in the income and livelihoods of small and marginal farm holders. FPOs will require access to cheap credit and much more for realising their full potential. Enabling member centrality, ownership, good governance, and business planning capabilities are equally important. There also needs to be a focus on infusion of technology; well-developed backward and forward linkages, with focus on export; and improving business orientation, clarity on compliance needs, and assimilation of market preferences.

FPOs/ FPCs provide end-to-end links between farmers and their markets and allow them to improve their productivity through efficient, cost-effective, and sustainable use of resources. Farmers acquire better capacity for and access to technical know-how on crop planning and management, inputs, credit, post-harvest management, value addition, etc. They will also be able to obtain higher returns for their produce through improved access to markets. This can be achieved through fruitful collaboration with government, financial institutions, CSR foundations, civil society organisations, academia, and research agencies. 

There needs to be a policy focus on promoting inclusive agri-value chains, for the benefit of small and marginal farm holders. An effective way to make it possible is through strong and efficient FPOs/FPCs. Linking of FPOs/ FPCs through contract farming arrangements with export-oriented food processing units of food parks created under Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sampada Yojana (PMKSY), for producing processed cereals, fruits, vegetables, fish and marine products, would boost exports of processed food and raise the income of small and marginal landholders and small fish farmers.

It is observed that the larger universe of banking and the rules may not suit the nuanced requirements of FPOs. Therefore, special attention needs to be paid to the aspect of funding arrangement of the collectives in the form of term loan for their investment needs, value chain financing for meeting the credit needs along the FPO value chain, and short-term credit limits for meeting the working capital needs of FPOs/FPCs. The establishment of a social stock exchange by the government may open up the possibility of experimenting with alternative funding opportunities for the FPOs/ FPCs.

The agri-tech start-ups in India have been trying to solve problems of low productivity, sub-optimal efficiency in the supply chain, and lack of access to markets, institutional credit, crop insurance, and quality inputs. The relationship between FPOs and start-ups is symbiotic as most of the challenges faced by FPOs can be solved through partnerships. FPOs truly need to be change agents for transforming Indian agriculture.

Attaining $100 Billion Agriculture and Food Exports: Challenges and Strategies for India

 

India is among the top ten exporting countries of agriculture and food products in the world. The country’s agri-exports grew by a robust 20.4% in 2021-22, to touch a record $50.2 billion.  The importance of India in the international agri-market is continuously increasing and the country has developed export competitiveness in certain specialised products. There has been a rising demand for Indian Basmati rice, non-Basmati rice, spices, and sugar as evident by their rising share of the total agricultural export.

The country needs to significantly enhance agriculture and food exports, while ensuring that agricultural products are globally competitive. However, global headwinds due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, disruption in global supply chain, unprecedented inflation, and monetary tightening by central banks of the developed countries, have adversely impacted global trade, and growth prospects across countries, including India.

Unstable agri-trade regime in India, reflected by knee-jerk reactions by the government to control prices in the domestic market, by banning exports of major agri-commodities, viz., rice, wheat, sugar, or onion, has been a major factor affecting agri-exports. Imposition of Minimum Export Price (MEP) is another tool often used by the government to tame inflation. Such moves bring relief to domestic consumers, but create uncertainty among importing countries, and deprive farmers of higher returns from their produce, which also discourages them to increase the area under cultivation of the crop in the subsequent season.

India’s Agriculture Export Policy (AEP), 2018, aims at promoting a stable trade regime, while setting an export target of $60 billion by 2022 and $100 billion within a few years, thereafter. Considering the strong agri-export growth during 2021-22, and the urgency of doubling farmers’ income, a target of $100 billion agri-exports from India could be set for 2026-27. However, this would be a daunting task, considering the present global economic situation.

In order to catch up with Brazil and China in agri-exports, India needs to bring about comprehensive structural reforms in the agriculture sector, with a focus on agriculture and food exports. The prerequisite for achieving the agriculture export target of $100 billion should be a well-calibrated, comprehensive, strategic, and result-oriented agri-export policy and action plan, along with overall reforms in the agriculture and allied sector. Agriculture export reforms, free trade agreements (FTAs)/ comprehensive economic partnership agreements (CEPAs) with major trading partners, agriculture marketing reforms, developing efficient agri-value chains, and building agriculture export infrastructure, are some of the major reform measures that could be expedited.

Primary products constitute about 75 per cent of APEDA products exported from India, in terms of value (USD). Therefore, the agriculture export strategy should prioritise the development of export-oriented value chains in respect of dairy products, processed marine products, processed fruits and vegetables, cereal preparations, and organic food. As India moves towards the exports of semi-processed, processed, and specialised food products, more value addition will happen in the country leading to more employment creation and the growth of the food processing sector.

The agriculture export strategy should include the integration of value-added agriculture produce with global value chains (GVC), by adopting the best agricultural practices involving productivity gains and cost competitiveness, while enhancing farmers’ income. Export-oriented production through the development of clusters, viz., “One District One Product (ODOP)”, and dedicated supply chains will help to enhance the global image of Indian products.  

In recent years, several Indian agricultural products have been facing rejection and export bans in the EU, a key export destination for India’s agricultural exports, due to sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) and technical barriers to trade (TBT) measures. To counter rejection by a partner country in forums like the WTO’s SPS Committee or TBT Committee, there is a need for data collection and scientific evidence-based reports. Further, it is important to build the capacity of our small, marginal, and medium farmers and processors and educate them about the export market requirements. It is, therefore, eminently important to sensitise and educate farmer producer organisations (FPOs) and other stakeholders in the agri-export value chains, on ways to address SPS/TBT-related issues. If domestic standards are aligned to international standards, there is less likelihood of product rejections, and it is easier to earn a premium price for certified products such as organic food products.

A key concern for both India and the UK, with respect to the agro-foods sector would be the removal of non-tariff barriers (NTBs). For India, for example, removal of NTBs in the form of less stringent Sanitary and Phytosanitary Requirements with respect to limits of pesticide residues, while for the UK, removal of NTBs in the form of easier labelling and registration procedures, customs requirements, etc., would be beneficial. Therefore, the India-UK negotiations for CEPA need to take note of this issue.

Growing protectionism across major economies is a serious threat to raising exports. This would require intense diplomatic efforts with India’s trading partners to finalise trade deals. Efforts to upgrade Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) to CEPA with Australia, and finalise CEPAs with the UK, the EU, the US and Canada, need to gather momentum.

The strategy for promotion of agri-exports should include investments in agri-export zones (AEZs), dairy export zones (DEZ), agro-processing clusters/zones, marketing infrastructure, cold chains, warehouses, roads, railways, and logistics along the export-oriented agri-value chains, connecting to ports and airports through public, private, and Public Private Partnership (PPP) modes.

Investments in R&D, climate smart agriculture, and technology in the form of IoT, AI, and blockchain, through a well-defined start-up ecosystem, supporting pre- and post-harvest activities for agri-exports, also need focused attention for stimulating agri-exports.

Reducing food loss and waste is a solution to reduce food and nutrition insecurity and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, without impinging on activities related to core economic development. Therefore, GoI should formulate a comprehensive national policy on ‘Achieving SDG 12.3 Targets by Minimising Food Loss’, to focus not only on minimising food loss but also on leveraging the potential to increase agro-based exports, resulting in augmented farm level income.

It has been observed that there is a strong impact of export financing on agricultural exports. Availability and affordability of export credit through lesser-explored mechanisms such as factoring, commodity exchange-facilitated financing, and value chain financing, would be critical for the achievement of the ambitious target for agricultural exports.

Concerted and coordinated efforts by GoI, state governments, APEDA, MPEDA, FIEO, TPCI, NDDB, GCMMF, food and agro-processing industry, RBI, NABARD, EXIM Bank, banks, agri-tech start-ups, FPOs/FPCs, and other stakeholders in the agri-export sector, would address a whole range of issues pertaining to the promotion of agriculture and food exports.

Finally, comprehensive reforms in the agriculture sector could propel India into the top bracket of agricultural exporters in the world, while attaining $100 billion in exports of agriculture and food products by 2026-27.

(The contents of this blog have been drawn from the book India’s Agriculture and Food Exports: Opportunities and Challenges, edited by Debesh Roy & Bijetri Roy and published by Bloomsbury India, 2022)

Transforming Indian Agriculture: Agenda for Reforms

1. Introduction

India’s target of achieving a $5 trillion economy needs to be supported by a transformed and reformed agriculture sector. It is, therefore, imperative that the agriculture sector should support the objective by focusing on transformational reforms, while targeting an annual agri-GVA growth of 5 percent.

 The criticality of agriculture for sustainable and inclusive growth of the Indian economy can be gauged from the fact that, the sector provides employment to about 42.4 per cent of the total workforce in India, but contributes only about 16.4 per cent (2020-21) to the country’s real Gross Value Added (GVA)[1]. About 86 per cent of operational holdings in the country are in the small and marginal categories, and the average size of an operational holding is only 1.08 hectare (ha). Due to fragmentation and disorganisation, majority of the small and marginal farm holders are unable to realise optimal value from their farming operations, resulting in agrarian distress.

 This paper deliberates on a reforms agenda for transforming the sector for doubling farmers’ income (DFI) and empowering small and marginal farm holders to move from subsistence farming to farm enterprises integrated to agri-value chains, while managing the VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity) world to mitigate agrarian distress.

 The rest of the paper is organised as follows: Section 2 presents growth trends in Indian agriculture during the period 2010-11 to 2019-20. Critical issues and challenges in the agriculture sector in India are discussed in section 3. Section 4 presents the agenda for reforms to transform Indian agriculture. Section 5.

2. Indian Agriculture Sector: Growth Trends

The average annual growth of agri-GVA during the period 2012-13 to 2020-21[2] stood at 3.2 percent. The period witnessed sharp dips in the growth in 2012-13 (1.5 percent), 2014-15 (-0.2 percent) and 2015-16 (0.6 percent) (Figure – 1), due to less than normal monsoon rainfall in these years. On the other hand, good monsoon rains resulted in high growth rates in agri-GVA during the years 2013-14 (5.6 percent), 2017-17 (6.3 percent), 5.0 percent (2017-18), 4.0 percent (2019-20) and 3.6 percent (2020-21) (Figure-1). However, in spite of India making great strides in terms of food security and being the leading producer of rice, wheat,  pulses, sugarcane and cotton, agriculture in the country continues to be heavily dependent on monsoon rains.  

Source: Data accessed from: (1) Press Note on First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption, Savings and Capital Formation 2018-19, MoSPI, Government of India; and (2) Press Note on Provisional Estimates of Annual National Income, 2020-21, 31 May 2021, MoSPI, Government of India.

The country recorded its highest foodgrain production of 303.3 million tonnes (MT) in 2020-21. However, the CAGR of foodgrain production during the period 2011-12 to 2019-20 was only 2.0 percent, due to low CAGR of rice (1.7 percent), wheat (1.9 percent), and nutri/ coarse cereals (1.9 percent). Pulses recorded the highest CAGR of 4.3 percent, due to sharp increase in production in 2016-17, as the farmers were encouraged to grow pulses, on account of significant increase in minimum support prices (MSPs).

 Among commercial crops, groundnuts experienced the highest CAGR of 4.7 percent, during the period under review. The CAGRs of other crops were very low, e.g., Soybean (0.2), sugarcane (0.7 percent), tea (2.2 percent), coffee  (0.4 percent), cotton (-0.4 percent), and jute and m

3. Indian Agriculture:  Critical Issues and Challenges

India is self-sufficient in the production of foodgrains, horticulture crops and milk. However,  Indian agriculture has long been suffering from structural problems, which need to be addressed urgently. Farmers in India, truly live in a VUCA world of volatile prices, uncertain rainfall and income, complex institutional mechanisms, restrictive laws, and policy ambiguities. Some of the critical issues and challenges confronting Indian agriculture are presented in the following sub-sections.

 

3.1 Small Size of Holdings and Low Income

The predominance of small and marginal holdings in India has resulted in inefficiency in cultivation and low average income of farmers. The findings of NABARD All India Rural Financial Inclusion Survey 2016-17 (NAFIS) (NABARD, 2018), reveal that for agricultural  source of income, with the average monthly contribution of ₹3,508 (43.1 percent)  to the total income of ₹8,136, while cultivation contributed 7 percent (₹566). On the other hand, the share of average monthly income from cultivation in respect of agricultural households with landholdings of  greater than 2 ha was 51.6 percent (₹7,572). The findings of NAFIS indicate a positive correlation between the average monthly income and size class of land possessed. Further, states like Punjab (₹23,133), Haryana (₹18,496) and Kerala (₹16,927) have witnessed much higher average income of agricultural households, compared to Uttar Pradesh (₹6,668), Andhra Pradesh (₹6,920), and Jharkhand (₹6,991). Therefore, reducing regional disparities in agricultural income need to be prioritised.

Strategies for promoting sustainable agricultural growth and enhancing farmers’ income, should include a group approach through farmer producer organisations (FPOs), which can improve market access to land, and help spread the risk of farming among a larger number and increase production opportunities by experimenting with higher value, and more risk prone crops with larger payoffs (Agarwal, 2016). Further, a group would be better placed to enter into non-exploitative contract farming arrangements (ibid.).

3.2 Low Agricultural Productivity

India is the largest producer of pulses and groundnut in the world, and  the second largest producer of paddy, wheat and sugarcane. However, stagnation in yield of major crops has been observed during the past two decades. The average yield of rice increased from 1,901 kg/ha in 2000-01 to 2,705 kg/ha in 2019-20  (Table-1), at a CAGR of 1.8 percent . The second decade (2010-11 to 2019-20) witnessed a marginally higher CAGR of yield of rice at 1.7 percent against 1.6 percent in the previous decade (2000-01 to 2009-10).  Wheat experienced an increase in average yield from 2,708 kg/ha in 2000-01 to 3,421 kg/ha in 2019-20, at a CAGR of 1.4 percent. The CAGR of productivity of wheat increased from 0.7 percent during the decade 2000-01 to 2009-10 to 1.5 percent during the following decade (2010-11 to 2019-20).  Pulses experienced a CAGR of yield of 1.5 percent in both the decades under review.

 Among commercial crops, a sharp increase in yield of cotton was witnessed during 2013-14 (532 bales/ ha compared to 190 bales/ ha in 2000-01), due to the introduction of Bt cotton in 2009-10. The CAGR of yield of cotton during the past two decades (2010-11 to 2019-20) stood at 11.3 percent (Table – 2). However,  the CAGR declined sharply from 4.3 percent during the decade 2000-01 to 2009-10 to -2.1 percent during 2010-11 to 2019-20, reflecting a stagnation in yield of cotton, after benefitting from the introduction of Bt cotton.  Groundnut has witnessed an increase in CAGR of yield from 3.3 per cent during the first decade to 4 percent during the following decade (2010-11 to 2019-20), mainly due to the introduction of improved varieties of seed. Yield of major crops in India also compare poorly with that of other countries in the world.

Table – 1

                       Yield of Foodgrains in India                                    

(Kg/ha)

Crops	2000-01	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20 (4th AE)
Rice	1901	2239	2393	2461	2424	2390	2400	2494	2576	2638	2705
Wheat	2708	2988	3177	3117	3075	2872	3034	3200	3368	3533	3421
Nutri/ Coarse cereals	1027	1531	1590	1617	1677	1729	1579	1750	1934	1944	1976
Pulses	544	691	699	789	764	744	656	786	853	757	817
Total Foodgrains	1626	1930	2078	2129	2101	2070	2056	2129	2235	2286	2325

                      Source: Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy 2019-20, RBI

Table – 2

Yield of Commercial Crops in India

                                                                                    (Kg/ha)

Crops	2000-01	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20 (4th AE)
Groundnut	977	1411	1323	996	1750	1400	1465	1398	1893	1422	2065
Soybean	822	1327	1208	1354	983	950	738	1177	1058	1192	928.0
Total oilseeds	810	1193	1133	1169	1153	1037	968	1195	1284	1271	1236.0
Sugarcane	68577	70091	71668	68254	69839	69859	70720	69001	80198	80105	77893
Tea	1682	1726	1956	2027	2121	2113	2176	2165	2285	2109	2126
Coffee	959	838	852	846	799	847	876	761	765	767	718
Cotton	190	499	491	486	532	461	415	512	443	378	451
Jute & Mesta	1867	2192	2283	2281	2449	2550	2421	2585	2435	2508	2641

Source: Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy 2019-20, RBI   

3.3 Stagnant Capital Formation in Agriculture

Capital formation in agriculture is of critical importance for the sustainability of agricultural growth.  The percentage share of Gross Capital Formation (GCF) in agriculture and allied sector in the Gross Value Added (GVA) of the sector, declined steadily from 18.2 percent in 2011-12 to 14.7 percent in 2015-16, before rising slowly to 16.4 percent in 2018-19 (Figure-2), which is too meagre to address the issue of sustainability of Indian agriculture. Therefore, capital formation through rural infrastructure development assumes significance. Public sector investment in rural infrastructure would result in high growth of the agricultural sector, and could also crowd-in private sector investment.

Source: Based on data accessed from Economic Survey 2020-21, Ministry of Finance, GoI and National Income Statistics 2020, MoSPI, GoI

 

3.4 Climate Change and Agriculture

Climate change poses a major and growing threat to food security (FAO, 2016). It would be a daunting challenge to produce enough food for the increasing population in the face of decreasing resources and changing climate. The estimated loss in yields in respect of major crops like rice (-30 per cent), wheat (-23 per cent) and maize (-31 per cent) during 2050-69 in India, due to climate change is quite alarming. Further, the net emissions from agriculture in carbon dioxide equivalent in 2014 in the world was as much as 5,241,761 thousand tonnes. China (707,640 thousand tonnes), India (626,864 thousand tonnes) and Brazil (441,905 thousand tonnes) account for the major quantum of net emissions from agriculture (FAO, 2016).

 

3.5 Market Constraints

A critical problem faced by India’s agriculture sector is the fragmented and distortions-ridden state of agricultural markets. One of the major reasons for low income of farmers is lack of competitive market structure, which is bereft of transparent price discovery system. Small and marginal farm holders lack the bargaining power to sell their produce at remunerative prices due to the exploitation by traders (arhatiyas) in the Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) markets. Lack of aggregation of produce makes it uneconomical for farmers to transport their produce to the APMC markets for their sale. 

 GoI announces Minimum Support Price (MSP) in respect of 23 commodities. However, only few states like Punjab, Haryana and M.P.,  have strong procurement systems and FCI procures major quantities of wheat from these states (84.8 percent during Rabi Marketing Year 2020-21).

 

           4. Transforming Indian Agriculture:  Agenda for Reforms

An agenda for reforms to transform Indian agriculture is presented in the following sub-sections.

4.1 Doubling Farmers’ Income

GoI has envisioned the achievement of doubling farmers’ income (DFI) by the year 2024-25. The following seven-point strategy for DFI is mostly under implementation: (i) irrigation with focus on water-use efficiency, viz. “per drop more crop” (PDMC) through Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY); (ii) quality seed and soil health, (iii) investments in warehouses and cold chains; (iv) value addition through food processing; (v) electronic National Agriculture Market (e-NAM); (vi) increase in the coverage and effective implementation of Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY); and (vii) promotion of ancillary activities like dairy, poultry, bee-keeping and fisheries. The strategy for DFI, involving increase in private investment by 6.62 per cent per annum from the base year 2015-16 at the national level, should also include among others: (a) promoting higher agricultural growth in less developed regions, including rainfed areas, with a focus on marginal and small holders; (b) strengthening livestock related activities and crop diversification to high value produce like horticulture, in line with market signals; (c) shifting priority focus to post-production management and the agricultural marketing system; (d) sizeable increase in institutional credit to farmers; (e) allocation of more resources by state governments towards minor irrigation; and (f) incentivising private corporate sector to participate in investments in agriculture (GoI, 2017). In order to achieve DFI, GoI can use income policy to protect the poor, free up prices for farmers, and allow private trade to stock and operate freely and have unhindered exports (Gulati and Hussain, 2017). What is also needed is the continuance of PM-KISAN, with possibly a higher allocation, along with top-up by states, on the lines of YSR-Rythu Bharosa-PM-KISAN of Andhra Pradesh.

 

 4.2 Irrigation and Water-use Efficiency

India is a water-stressed country, and the declining per capita availability of water in the country poses a major challenge to the growth of agriculture. Out of the country’s 4 percent share of global freshwater availability, the agriculture sector consumes about 78 percent share of water (Sharma, et al., 2018). However, while only 48.7 per cent of the net sown area in the country is irrigated, the depletion of groundwater, which accounts for about 60 per cent of the country’s irrigated area, has adverse impact on irrigation cost and crop productivity. Therefore,  implementation of  PMKSY and PDMC should create higher irrigation potential and ensure water-use efficiency.

 

The overall irrigation efficiency in India is observed to be low compared to global standards due to the use of conventional flood irrigation technique, practised in large parts of the country. In order to improve water-use efficiency of crop cultivation, the use of precision irrigation technologies needs to gain momentum. Water stress can be reduced and availability of water can be increased through cost-based water pricing. There is also a need to make a paradigm shift from use of input intensive technology to significantly enhancing input productivity, e.g., the use of water-saving technology like micro-irrigation, System of Rice Intensification (SRI), direct seeded rice, zero tillage, etc.

  4.3 Tech-driven agriculture

According to NITI Aayog (2018), Artificial Intelligence (AI) will have significant global impact on agricultural productivity at all levels of the value chain. AI and embedded systems in agriculture sector via smart irrigation system can result in the efficient use of water resources. Drip irrigation system can be fully automated using IoT, resulting in significantly higher crop yield due to much better water-use efficiency than traditional drip irrigation system. NITI Aayog and IBM have partnered to develop a crop yield prediction model using AI to provide real time advisory to farmers. Also, Microsoft in collaboration with ICRISAT, has developed an AI Sowing App. The app sends sowing advisories to participating farmers on the optimal date to sow. 

According to NASSCOM and Zinnov (2020), agri-tech start-ups are using technology drivers such as AI, machine learning (ML), robotics and satellite communication to serve farmers’ needs. The interface of agriculture with technology steered entrepreneurship is increasing competitiveness, leveraging digitisation and relying on innovation to solve varied challenges in the sector (Kant, 2021). There are 735 agri-tech start-ups in India which are enabling Indian agriculture to become future ready, and there is a need to scale up the agri-tech start-up ecosystem for the benefit of majority of farmers.

4.4 Agriculture Marketing Reforms

GoI’s vision of DFI signified a paradigm shift in agriculture policy from ensuring food security to income security of farmers, by maximising their gains through post-production activities. The enactment of Farmers’ Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, 2020 (FPTC Act, 2020), Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services Act, 2020 (FAPAFS Act, 2020) and Essential Commodities (Amendment) Act, 2020 (ECA, 2020), signified the ushering in of the long-awaited comprehensive  agri-marketing reforms. However, the Acts have since been repealed, in response to the year-long agitation by a section of farmers against the Acts. It is, therefore, imperative for the central and state governments, along with agriculture scientists, economists, farmers, agri-tech companies, corporate sector, and all stakeholders to start a consultative process to facilitate state governments to enact agriculture marketing reform Acts, and for GoI to enact a law facilitating easy inter-state movement of agri-commodities/ produce. Further, in order to develop an efficient nation-wide  agri-marketing system, e-NAMs need to be scaled up and made more efficient, and all private markets and accredited warehouses should be linked to e-NAMs.

4.5 Rural Infrastructure and Efficient Agri-Value Chains

Investment in rural infrastructure is a pre-condition to enable the acceleration of agricultural growth, creation of new economic opportunities, and generation of employment. It is, therefore, worth appreciating that the Union Budget 2021-22 has enhanced the allocation under Rural Infrastructure Development Fund (RIDF), administered by NABARD, by a whopping 33.3 percent to `40,000 crore over the allocation in the previous year’s Budget.

Further, setting up of mega food parks, integrated cold chains, food processing units, agro-processing clusters, and implementation of Operations Greens Scheme, under GoI’s comprehensive package of PM Kisan SAMPADA Yojana (PMKSY) , will not only provide a big boost to the growth of food processing sector in the country but also ensure higher income to farmers, while creating huge employment opportunities especially in the rural areas, reducing wastage of agricultural produce, and enhancing the export of processed foods. The Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme for the food processing sector is a step in the right direction.

 India is the largest producer of milk in the world, having increased from 146.3 million tonnes in 2014-15 to 198.4 million tonnes in 2019-20 (GoI, 2021). The country is also the second largest fish producing country in the world, and fisheries is the fastest-growing (12 percent real GVA growth in 2018-19) sub-sector of agriculture and allied sector.  A focus on development of efficient dairy and fisheries value chains could significantly increase employment and improve the income of smallholder farmers.

4.6  Agriculture Export Reforms

India ranks among the top ten exporters of agricultural products in the world.  According to WTO’s World Trade Statistical Review 2021, the country’s share in global agricultural exports increased from 1.1 percent in the year 2000 to 2.2 percent in 2020, valued at $39 billion, In order to catch-up with Brazil ($89 billion) and China ($82 billion), India needs to bring about structural reforms in the agriculture sector, including a stable trade policy regime (Roy, 2021).

India’s agricultural exports experienced huge fluctuations during the period 2011-12 to 2020-21 (Figure – 3). The ten-year CAGR was -0.6 percent. During the first five-year period 2011-12 to 2015-16, the CAGR was -3.0 percent. The second five-year period (2016-17 to 2020-21) witnessed a positive CAGR to 2.4 percent.

CAGR:  2011-12 to 2020-21 = -0.6%; 2011-12 to 2015-16 = -3.0%; 2016-17 to 2020-21 = 2.4%

Source: Author’s calculations based on data accessed from Economic Survey, Government of India (various issues) and World Trade Statistical Review 2021, WTO

The Agriculture Export Policy (AEP), 2018 of GoI, aims at achieving an export target of $60 billion by 2022 and $100 billion within a few years, thereafter. This is indeed a humongous task, and achieving the target would involve a paradigm shift from a “business-as-usual” approach to a well-calibrated, comprehensive, strategic  and result-oriented agri-export policy and action plan.

 The agri-export strategy should include integration of value-added agri-produce with global value chains (GVC), by adopting the best agricultural practices involving productivity gains and cost competitiveness. Also, in order to boost exports of dairy products and make the dairy sector globally competitive, GoI needs to consider the development of Dairy Export Zones (DEZs) in collaboration with state governments (Roy, 2021). The AEP has recommended the establishment of Agriculture Export Zones (AEZs), to facilitate value addition of agri-commodities for increasing exports in a WTO compatible manner. In order to ensure higher income to farmers, FPOs need to be linked to AEZs to supply SPS-compliant agri-products. 

4.7  Climate Mitigation and Adaptation for Sustainable Agriculture Development

Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) works to reconcile the objectives of sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and incomes, building resilience and adapting agriculture to climate change, and reducing and removing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture (FAO, 2019). Drip irrigation is a CSA technology, which saves water and energy, while reducing GHG emissions. Expansion in the use of solar-powered AI-based drip irrigation systems across all states in India and for major crops, viz. rice, wheat, horticultural crops and sugarcane can be an integral part of a Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus approach to support water-use efficiency, use of renewable energy and mitigation of GHG emissions, food security and sustainable agriculture.

 Methane (CH₄) emissions contribute to a third of the current anthropogenic GHG warming. Paddy cultivation contributes about 15-20 percent of the total anthropogenic CH₄ emissions. Methods like System of Rice Intensification (SRI), drip irrigation, soil amendments, organic matter management, different tillage, rotation, and cultivar selection, can facilitate mitigation of methane emission (Roy, 2020).

 

4.8 Research and Development and Extension Services

The needs of farmers in terms of information and technology support have become more complex, due to the rapid pace of developments in the agriculture sector. India needs a vibrant, responsive, market oriented and globally competitive agricultural research ecosystem (NITI Aayog, 2017). Budgetary resources for R&D on seeds (HYV and GM), and agri-technology,  need to be enhanced significantly.  The private sector, too, needs to enhance investment in R&D. Further, there is a need to revitalise agriculture extension services by making them more relevant and useful in order to improve agricultural productivity. Also, efforts need to be made to enhance post-harvest processing and value-added activities at the farm. FPOs/ FPCs could be developed into alternative agencies for providing extension services to farmers.

4.9  Agriculture Credit

Adequate and timely availability of bank credit, at affordable rates of interest is essential to improve agricultural productivity and sustainability. The  focus needs be on ensuring increased credit flows to high-growth and high-value activities, viz. animal husbandry, dairy, and fisheries, along with horticulture, farm mechanisation, warehouses and cold chains, to farmers, FPOs and agripreneurs. It is imperative to increase the share of agriculture term loans in total agriculture credit disbursed, from the current 40 percent to 60 percent, to accelerate  capital formation in agriculture.

4.10        Risk Management

The PMFBY, which aims to provide insurance coverage and financial support to the farmers in the event of failure of any of the notified crops as a result of natural calamities, pests and diseases, needs to be redesigned for timely and adequate support to farmers.  Futures markets provide a market mechanism to balance the imbalance of the supply-demand pattern of agricultural commodities. Also, the combination of futures and options can give market participants the benefit of price discovery of futures and simpler risk management of options. FPOs need to be encouraged to participate in futures and options trading of NCDEX.

 

     5. Conclusion 

An enabling environment for agricultural sustainability needs to be created through massive investment in irrigation, with a focus on water-use efficiency, enhancement in total factor productivity of crops, tech-driven agriculture,  climate-smart agriculture, creation of rural infrastructure, development of efficient agri-value chains, agri-marketing reforms, promotion of agri-exports, enhancing spending on R&D, credit innovations, and agri-risk management. Also, tenancy reforms need to be carried out by states. Effective implementation of these transformative reforms, could lead to sustainability of Indian agriculture, and facilitate the achievement of doubling farmers’ income by 2024-25, while mitigating agrarian distress. Reforms would create an ecosystem which promises to enable farmers to come out of the VUCA world.

 (This blog is drawn from paper published in Indian Economic Journal Special Issue of the 103rd Annual Conference of the Indian Economic Association)

References:

Agarwal, Bina. 2016. “Rethinking Agricultural Production Collectives: The Case for a Group Approach to Energise Agriculture and Empower Small Farmers” in C.Ramasamy and K.R.Ashok (Eds.) Vicissitudes of Agriculture in the Fast Growing Indian Economy: Challenges, Strategies and the Way Forward, Indian Society for Agricultural Economics, Academic Foundation, New Delhi.

FAO. 2016. State of Food and Agriculture 2016.

FAO. 2019. Climate-smart Agriculture and the Sustainable Development Goals

Government of India. 2017. Report of the Committee on Doubling Farmers’ Income, Volume II, Ministry of Agriculture and farmers’ Welfare, New Delhi.

Government of India. 2021. Economic Survey 2020-21, Vol.2, Ministry of Finance.

Gulati, Ashok and Siraj Hussain. 2017. “Chasing a Dream: Doubling Farmers’ Income by2022", Financial Express, August 28, 2017, Mumbai.

Kant, Amitabh. 2021. “Sowing Future Growth: Advantage Agritech for Farm  Sector Transformation.” Financial Express, January 15, 2021.

NABARD, 2018. NABARD All India Rural Financial Inclusion Survey 2016-17 (NAFIS)

NASSCOM and Zinnov. 2020. Indian Tech Start-up Ecosystem 2020.

NITI Aayog. 2017. India: Three Year Action Agenda 2017-18 to 2019-20, NITI Aayog, New Delhi.

 NITI Aayog. 2018. Discussion Paper: National Strategy for Artificial Intelligence. NITI Aayog, New Delhi.

 Roy, Debesh. 2020. “Green development: Strategising mitigation of agricultural methane emissions”, Financial Express,  August 24, 2020.

 Roy, Debesh. 2021. “Doubling Farmers’ Income: Increasing Agricultural Exports is Key.” Financial Express, January 12, 2021.

Sharma, Bharat R., Ashok Gulati, Gayathri Mohan, Stuti Manchanda, Indro Ray, and Upali Amarasinghe, 2018. Water Productivity Mapping of Major Indian Crops. NABARD & ICRIER

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[1] Based on data accessed from Press Note on Provisional Estimates of Annual National Income, 2020-21, National Statistical Office Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation,  Government of India, 31 May 2021.

[2] 2020-21 data is as per Second Advance Estimate of GDP, 26 February 2021, MoSPI, GoI.